When Will Lumber Prices Stabilize? Insights for 2025–2026

If you’re a contractor framing a new build, a homeowner planning a deck addition, or a lumberyard owner juggling inventory, one question keeps popping up: “When will lumber prices stabilize?” As we hit the midpoint of 2025, the market feels like a rollercoaster—prices dipping seasonally but poised for volatility thanks to tariffs, housing demand, and global supply hiccups. At Lumber Capital Log Yard, we’ve been tracking this closely, and the data paints a picture of cautious optimism for the rest of 2025 with upward pressure building into 2026.

In this post, we’ll break down the current state of lumber prices (as of mid-November 2025), forecast what’s ahead for 2025–2026, and dive into the key drivers behind the swings. Whether you’re budgeting for a project or stocking up, this guide will help you navigate the uncertainty. Let’s get into it.

Current Lumber Prices: A Mid-2025 Snapshot

Right now, the lumber market is in a familiar seasonal lull, but prices remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms. The Framing Lumber Composite Price (a benchmark for softwood framing lumber) closed at $464 per thousand board feet (mfbm) for the week ending November 14, 2025, down from $480 the prior week. Futures contracts for lumber hit $545.50 per 1,000 board feet on November 17, reflecting a 2.68% daily drop but a 17.2% year-over-year increase.

Price Breakdown

For context:

• Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 #2&Btr KD (RL): $474 mfbm (down 3% week-over-week, up 16% year-over-year).

• Southern Yellow Pine 2x4 #2&Btr KD (RL): $365 mfbm.

• Overall framing lumber: Up 11.71% since Q2 2024, averaging around $903/mbf in October before the seasonal dip.

  
  

These aren’t the sky-high peaks of 2021 ($1,600+), but they’re still 10–17% above 2023 levels in many categories. The good news? Prices have stabilized somewhat since early 2025’s volatility, thanks to better supply chains. The bad news? Winter slowdowns are masking bigger forces at play.

Lumber Price Forecast: 2025–2026 Outlook

Looking ahead, analysts are split between moderate growth and tariff-fueled spikes, but the consensus leans toward upward pressure through 2026. Here’s a quick summary of major forecasts:

| Source | 2025 Forecast | 2026 Forecast | Key Assumption |

|---------------------------|----------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------|

| Forest Economic Advisors (FEA) | +1.6% demand growth; Framing Composite up ~8% | +4.9% demand; +16% price jump | No full tariff resumption; housing starts to 1.50M |

| Fastmarkets | Upward pressure on Western species; volatility +50–100% | Stabilization post-tariffs | Tariffs hit Canadian viability at $400–499/mbf |

| Wood Business | +8.1% rebound in Framing Composite; Q3 spike | +16% overall | Duties to 30%; housing starts to 1.501M |

| Trio Forest Products | 13–21% increases due to tariffs & wildfires | Plateau at higher levels | AR6 rulings + supply disruptions |

| NAHB / Gordian | 11% housing rise; current +17% YoY | Continued ascent with volatility | Tariffs + demand surge |

Overall consensus: expect framing lumber to average $500–600/mbf through late 2025, with potential spikes to $600+ in Q3 2026 if tariffs fully hit.

What’s Driving Lumber Prices Right Now?

No single factor rules the market, but a perfect storm of demand, supply constraints, and geopolitics is keeping costs elevated. Here’s the breakdown:

1. Tariffs and Trade Tensions: The Big Disruptor

Trade policy is the hottest topic in lumber circles. In August 2025, the U.S. Department of Commerce doubled countervailing duties on Canadian softwood imports from 6.74% to 14.63%, pushing total tariffs (including anti-dumping) to 35.2%—up from 14.4%. Canada supplies ~25% of U.S. lumber, so this hits hard.

• Impact: Preliminary hikes to 34.5% are set for September 2025, potentially causing 15–25% price spikes in select products. President-elect Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods (plus a 10% universal import tariff) could add fuel, making Canadian mills uncompetitive below $400–499/mbf and forcing U.S. producers to ramp up (but not fast enough).

• Why it matters: Expect spot shortages in Western species and a 6–21% overall price bump by year-end. Builders: Lock in prices now if you can.

  
  

2. Housing Demand and Economic Recovery

The U.S. housing shortage—estimated at 3.8 million units—won’t fix itself overnight, and that’s bullish for lumber. Forecasts call for housing starts to rise 1.3% to 1.38 million in 2025 and 8.6% to 1.50 million in 2026, boosting softwood consumption by 4.5% to 17.3 billion board feet (BBF) this year.

• Drivers: Falling mortgage rates (down to ~6% projected for late 2025) and pent-up demand from millennials/Gen Z are fueling an 11% construction surge. Repair/remodel (R&R) activity dips slightly in 2025 (-0.2% to 19.4 BBF) but rebounds 5% in 2026.

• Counterpoint: Slow industrial growth (e.g., pallets) caps gains at 0.7% this year.

  
  

3. Supply Constraints: From Mills to Mother Nature

Over 5 BBF of North American mill capacity has shuttered since 2023 due to low prices and high costs, reducing output by ~7%. Add wildfires (disrupting Western timber), pest infestations, and rising European production costs, and imports are down—offshore inflows drop amid weak U.S. demand.

• Labor and Logistics: Shortages in logging/transport (exacerbated by cyberattacks and fuel costs) keep supply tight. Result: North American demand on mills grows just 1% in 2025 but accelerates to 4.8% in 2026.

  
  

4. Inflation and Broader Economics

Easing inflation (projected to cool through mid-2025) helps stabilize transport costs, but elevated energy prices and wage pressures keep production ~10–15% above 2020 levels. Global factors—like China’s infrastructure boom increasing competition for logs—add indirect pressure.

How This Affects You: Practical Tips for Buyers

The smartest move right now? Buy local – and here’s why it pays off big in 2025–2026.

When Canadian lumber gets slapped with another 20–35% in duties (and it’s coming), the price shock hits everyone who depends on big-box stores or suppliers that lean heavily on imported dimension lumber. At Lumber Capital, we’ve built our business from the ground up – literally. As a family-owned operation right here in North Central Pennsylvania, we harvest our own timber through Ironwood Acres Timber Harvest and mill it on-site at our log yard. No relying on distant imports or middlemen; everything from old-growth logs to rough-cut hemlock for siding and fences comes straight from local landowners in the greater Susquehanna Valley.

Benefits of Buying Local

What that means for you today:

• Zero exposure to tariff spikes: Our lumber is 100% U.S.-sourced and milled fresh, so you dodge the full 15–25% jump that imported loads are about to take. (Pro tip: Our hemlock and hardwood selections are holding steady while SPF futures climb.)

• No middleman markups: Harvest-to-yard direct = unbeatable pricing, whether you’re grabbing a few boards for a DIY fence or a full load of kiln-dried walnut for custom cabinets.

• In-stock reliability: While national chains scramble with backorders on Western species when the border tightens, our on-site LT70 mill keeps us churning out fresh cuts daily. No waiting on rail cars from British Columbia – just straight, dry lumber ready to load.

  
  

Whether you need a bunk of rough-cut hemlock for fencing, premium firewood kits for the winter grill season, or specialty slabs for tables and mantels, we’ve got it milled and stacked – all from trees we harvested ourselves, sustainably and locally.

Stop guessing what the next invoice is going to look like. Swing by our yard in Cogan Station, give us a call at (570) 651-3442. Serving the greater Susquehanna Valley with the straightest, driest, and most fairly priced lumber – milled from our backyard to yours.